OPEC report sounds alarms
The latest OPEC report, published earlier this week, provided statistics on a volatile commodity. Below are some of the highlights:
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value fell by $6.02, or 7.1%, m-o-m, to average $78.41/b.
The ICE Brent front-month contract dropped by $5.00, or 6.0%, m-o-m, to stand at $78.88/b.
The NYMEX WTI front-month contract dropped by $5.05, or 6.3%, to average $75.43/b.
The DME Oman front-month contract dropped by $5.83, or 7.0%, to settle at $77.54/b.
The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread widened by 5¢, m-o-m, to stand at $3.45/b.
Furthermore, "the forward curves of oil futures prices flattened slightly, but all major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation," OPEC stated in its report. "Money managers closed long positions and raised short positions, particularly in the ICE Brent market."
On a macro scale, the world economic growth forecast in 2024 was revised up slightly to 3%, while the forecast for 2025 remains at 2.9%, unchanged from last month’s assessment, OPEC said. The US economic growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 remain at 2.4% and 1.9%, respectively. Japan’s economic growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 remain at 0.2% and 0.9%, respectively. For the Eurozone, the economic growth forecast for 2024 is revised up slightly to 0.8%, while the 2025 forecast remains at 1.2%. China’s economic growth forecasts remain at 4.9% for 2024 and 4.6% for 2025. India’s economic growth forecast for 2024 is revised up to 6.8% due to robust growth in 1H24, while the 2025 forecast remains at 6.3%. The economic growth forecast for Brazil is revised up to 2.2% for 2024 and remains at 1.9% for 2025. Russia’s economic growth forecast is revised up slightly to 3.2% in 2024 and remains at 1.5% in 2025.